Tag: oil
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Syrian Surprise: Implications of a Sudden Regime Change (January 13, 2025)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF
On December 8, 2024, the world awoke to a dramatically changed order in the Middle East. Seemingly out of nowhere, the Assad family regime, which had stood for 54 years and withstood 13 years of civil war, fell to a sudden rebel onslaught. What seemingly began only 11 days prior as an isolated effort by a rebel group in the northwest corner of Syria quickly became an unstoppable advance through the country’s major population centers and culminated in the overthrow of the regime, the flight of its leader into exile, and the ascendancy of a new governing authority. Since the new power in Damascus has entirely different loyalties than the regime it deposed, this development throws the regional balance of power into question, with geopolitical and global investment implications.
This report begins with a review of Syrian history and continues with an overview of the pertinent facts of 21st century Syria and the surprise rebel initiative that led to the change of power. Upon this backdrop, we discuss the interests and priorities of the significant regional and global players who have a stake in the future of Syria. As always, we conclude with implications for investors.
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Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Podcast – #47 “Middle East: Land of Fault Lines” (Posted 5/6/24)
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Middle East: Land of Fault Lines (May 6, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF
Conflict in the Middle East is one of the most persistent themes in current events. Not only is this true today, but Middle Eastern discord has dominated the news flow throughout most of our lives. At Confluence, we recognize that this enduring pattern of strife reveals the presence of many major fault lines that run through Middle Eastern society, politics, economics, and relations with the rest of the world.
A fault line is defined as a “divisive issue or difference of opinion that is likely to have serious consequences.” A major fault line is one in which the competing forces have both deeply embedded positions and the resources to support those positions. Many issues of this type characterize those in the Middle East, which explains why conflict in the region is so common despite repeated attempts at resolution. Investors must be prepared for this trend to endure for the foreseeable future, which will continue to meaningfully impact global affairs.
This report briefly reviews the main fault lines that define the Middle East from a geopolitical standpoint. This is not a complete list, but rather it is a selection of those we consider most enduring and impactful. Confluence does not take positions on these issues, but we will summarize and show how they produce complexity. We arrange these prominent fault lines in three layers: the ancient fault lines, the more modern ones, and the present-day issues that are currently causing “geopolitical earthquakes.” While these earthquakes do raise the risk of escalation into a broader regional war, we remind readers that the region has often witnessed this increased level of risk before without necessarily leading to further escalation. Rather than trying to predict the outcome, we recommend that investors pay attention to key implications, which we will highlight at the end of the report.