Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Implications of North Korean Soldiers in the Ukraine War (November 18, 2024)

by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA  | PDF

In late October, the world learned that North Korean soldiers had deployed to Russia to assist their allies in the Ukraine war. This dramatically changed the geopolitical profile of the conflict. Allies and partners of both Ukraine and Russia have been providing material and financial support to both countries since virtually the beginning of the war. North Korea itself (formal name Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, or DPRK) has been contributing large quantities of arms and ammunition to Russia; however, this is the first known instance of another country sending combat troops to join the fight on either side. This precedent-setting action marks a clear escalation and raises the question of how this development might further accelerate the conflict.

This report addresses that question. We begin with a review of the known facts concerning troop numbers, types, locations, etc. We continue with an assessment of the likely impact of DPRK forces on the course and outcome of the Ukraine war and culminate with considerations of how this development might affect the broader geopolitical landscape beyond the conflict. As always, we conclude with investment implications. Since this report addresses a newly emerging and rapidly evolving development, its status may materially change post-publication. We encourage readers to monitor our Daily Comment for emerging updates.

Read the full report

Don’t miss our accompanying podcasts, available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify 

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook: Uncertainty Reigns (June 17, 2024)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, Thomas Wash, Daniel Ortwerth, CFA, and Bill O-Grady | PDF

As the first half draws to a close, we typically update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for the rest of the year. The report is not designed to be exhaustive. Rather, it focuses on the “big picture” conditions that we think will affect policy and markets going forward. We have subtitled this report “Uncertainty Reigns” to reflect the fact that chaos and unpredictability have become entrenched as the post-Cold War era of globalization gives way to a new period of Great Power competition. Our issues are listed in order of importance.

Issue #1: China – South China Sea

Issue #2: Russia-Ukraine-NATO

Issue #3: Israel-Hamas-Iran

Issue #4: The US Elections

Issue #5: US Defense Rebuilding

Issue #6: Global Monetary Policy

Read the full report

Don’t miss our accompanying podcasts, available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify