Tag: saudi arabia
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2019 Geopolitical Outlook (December 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady
(N.B. This will be the last WGR of 2018. Our next report will be published January 7, 2019.)
As is our custom, we close out the current year with our geopolitical outlook for the next one. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape in the upcoming year. It is not designed to be exhaustive, but rather it focuses on the “big picture” conditions that we believe will affect policy and markets going forward. They are listed in order of importance.
Issue #1: China
Issue #2: European Politics
Issue #3: Rising Western Populism
Issue #4: Saudi Succession
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Qatar Situation: Part II (August 14, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady
Last week, we discussed a short history of Qatar and its geopolitical imperatives. This week, we will analyze the events precipitating the blockade, the blockade itself, the GCC’s demands and the impact thus far on Qatar. We will examine how the situation has reached a stalemate and, as always, we will conclude with market ramifications.
The Precipitating Events
As we discussed last week, a combination of conditions have allowed Qatar to avoid domination by Saudi Arabia, the generally recognized leader of the GCC. Qatar has powerful allies outside the region, friendly relations with Iran, is demographically unified and has an economy that isn’t dependent on oil, all of which have allowed Qatar to follow independent policies. This situation has persistently angered Saudi and UAE leaders. Beneath these national concerns are also long-standing tribal rivalries.
However, these differences have been in place for a long time. It appears that there were three events that led the GCC, Egypt, Yemen and Sudan to react and initiate the blockade.
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Qatar Situation: Part I (August 7, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady
On June 6th, several members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)[1] announced a sweeping blockade of Qatar, also a member of the GCC. The GCC members enforcing the blockade, led by Saudi Arabia, issued a list of 13 demands which Qatar rejected.
Since the blockade was implemented, Qatar has managed to replenish basic foodstuffs that were initially stripped from store shelves as households rushed to hoard necessities. The emirate state has managed to fly in dairy cows from abroad which are now contentedly supplying milk from air conditioned barns in Qatar.
In the first part of this report, we will offer a short history of Qatar and examine its geopolitical imperatives. Next week, in Part II, we will analyze the events precipitating the blockade, the blockade itself, the GCC’s demands and the impact thus far on Qatar. We will examine how the situation has reached a stalemate and, as always, we will conclude with market ramifications.
[1] Member states include Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain.
Weekly Geopolitical Report – A Coup in Riyadh (July 31, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady
On June 20th, King Salman of Saudi Arabia announced that his son, Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS, as he is affectionately known), would be the new crown prince, replacing Prince Mohammed bin Nayef. Although the move was momentous, it was not necessarily unexpected. MbS’s stature in the kingdom had been rising since he was appointed as deputy crown prince in 2015, while Prince Nayef, who had been appointed as crown prince at the same time, held a lower profile and was generally overshadowed by his younger cousin.
However, over the past two weeks, details of the change emerged in the major U.S. media.[1] Although the initial reports suggested the change was consensual, recent articles, referenced below, make it clear that Prince Nayef was ousted.
In this report, we will discuss the history of the succession of Saudi kings to highlight how the eventual ascension of MbS will represent a major break with history. We will then examine the details of the ouster and the potential for opposition to MbS taking power. We will analyze what the eventual kingship of MbS might mean for the region. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications.
[1] http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-palace-coup-idUSKBN1A41IS
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Next Generation (May 11, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady
On April 29th, Saudi King Salman announced a set of changes to his cabinet and to the order of royal succession. We believe these changes are very significant, perhaps the most critical since the first royal succession in 1953.
In this report, we will detail the changes announced by King Salman. To put these changes in context, we will provide a short history of the important succession plan that was established in 1964. With this background, we will show how the king’s announcement represents the first change in the program and discuss how these changes could affect the future stability of the kingdom. As always, we will conclude with potential market ramifications.
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Can Assad Survive? (May 4, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady
Since the beginning of the year, rebels in Syria have been making steady gains against forces loyal to the Assad regime. Over the past six weeks, these gains have accelerated. The recent rebel victories are raising questions about the Assad regime’s ability to survive.
In this report, we will recap the problems the Syrian government faces, including internal dissention and military losses. We will discuss the growing evidence of a Turkey-Saudi axis that may be aiding the rebels to weaken or eliminate Assad and pressure Iran. From there, we will examine the potential Iranian and American responses to the rebel gains and support from Riyadh and Ankara. As always, we will conclude with potential market ramifications.
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Ideology of IS (April 27, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady
The March edition of Atlantic Magazine published an article about Islamic State (IS) that examined its theology and ideology. This article along with a paper from the Brookings Institute on the ideology of IS form the basis of our report this week.
In this report, we will examine the intellectual foundations of IS, showing how it evolved from two different sources of thought. We will follow this with an analysis of the concept of the Caliphate and the critical importance it has in Islamic theology. A Caliphate is a form of Islamic government which, in some Islamic conceptions, is a universal government for all people. An examination of the eschatology of IS will also be included. The consequences of IS’s ideology will be discussed. As always, we will conclude with potential market ramifications.
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The AIIB (April 20, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady
China has founded an infrastructure bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), to compete with the World Bank (WB) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The U.S. has opposed the creation of this bank but, despite administration opposition, 57 nations have joined it, including 14 members of the G-20. A chorus of commentators has suggested that the founding of this bank may mark the end of U.S. hegemony.
In this report, we will describe the AIIB, including its members and capitalization. Next, we will cover the conventional wisdom surrounding the bank, and follow up with our analysis of the real impact of the bank. We will conclude with potential market ramifications of this framework.