by the Confluence Macroeconomic Team  | PDF

(This is the final BWGR of 2024; the next report will be published on January 13, 2025.)

Each December, we at Confluence publish our annual Geopolitical Outlook to give readers a sense of the issues that will likely dominate the international landscape in the coming year. We don’t necessarily make predictions in this document. Rather, we aim to alert readers to the probable key issues in the coming year or even beyond. The likely developments we identify aren’t meant to be an exhaustive list. We instead focus on the major big-picture conditions that we believe will deeply affect policy and markets going forward. We list the issues in order of importance.

Issue #1: The Next Evolution of American Hegemony

Issue #2: Less Cohesion in the US Bloc, More Cohesion in the China Bloc

Issue #3: China’s Economic Growth Slows Further, But Not Its Military

Issue #4: European Politics Shift Further to the Right

Issue #5: The Middle East Struggles to Regain Peace

Issue #6: Canada and Mexico Adjust to Trump 2.0

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