Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Syrian Surprise: Implications of a Sudden Regime Change (January 13, 2025)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF
On December 8, 2024, the world awoke to a dramatically changed order in the Middle East. Seemingly out of nowhere, the Assad family regime, which had stood for 54 years and withstood 13 years of civil war, fell to a sudden rebel onslaught. What seemingly began only 11 days prior as an isolated effort by a rebel group in the northwest corner of Syria quickly became an unstoppable advance through the country’s major population centers and culminated in the overthrow of the regime, the flight of its leader into exile, and the ascendancy of a new governing authority. Since the new power in Damascus has entirely different loyalties than the regime it deposed, this development throws the regional balance of power into question, with geopolitical and global investment implications.
This report begins with a review of Syrian history and continues with an overview of the pertinent facts of 21st century Syria and the surprise rebel initiative that led to the change of power. Upon this backdrop, we discuss the interests and priorities of the significant regional and global players who have a stake in the future of Syria. As always, we conclude with implications for investors.