Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rising US & Global Debt: A Perspective Check (November 4, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF
Concern has been rising across American society and throughout much of the world about the level of United States government debt. An increasing number of voices are sounding the alarm that the debt level is unsustainable, and crisis is on the way. Debates rage about how such a crisis will begin and when it will happen, but according to the alarmist view, the country will inevitably face financial catastrophe, with grave consequences for the security of the nation and the welfare of its citizens. Is this true? Are we really on a critical path, and is a catastrophic outcome inevitable? It is time to gather the facts and apply sound analysis to give ourselves a well-founded perspective.
This report uses standardized, internationally recognized data for 43 of the largest countries, from the beginning of the century to the present, to analyze US and global debt levels according to broadly accepted methods. It assesses the progression of debt levels across the period, between countries and country groups (i.e., developed and emerging) and between sectors of society (i.e., government and private). Our goal is to provide a fact-based sense of the situation and its trends. The report pays particular attention to the comparison between US and Chinese debt levels, since this plays a role in the geopolitical competition that has emerged. As always, we finish with implications for investors.