Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The US Presidential Election: Foreign Policy Implications (October 7, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA and Thomas Wash | PDF
History shows that, despite the promises made as candidates, United States presidents display remarkable foreign policy consistency from one administration to the next. While often distinguishing themselves in the realm of domestic policy, the imperatives of national security tend to force the hands of presidents into choices that change very little (if at all) with party affiliation. In other words, foreign policy tends to be remarkably consistent.
Nevertheless, foreign policy typically provides at least some room for maneuver, and presidents use this wiggle room to pursue their priorities as circumstances permit. Often these priorities are different from one candidate to the next. With the presidential election looming in November, we need to understand these differences and their investment implications.
This report analyzes how US foreign policy might look in a new term for former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, and in an initial term for Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate. It begins with a characterization of the two candidates according to the main American foreign policy traditions. It considers the kinds of cabinet members they will probably choose to fill the rosters of their foreign policy teams, and it culminates with a review of their priorities as we know them. As always, we conclude the report with implications for investors, in this case as they differ between the two candidates.